Mar 22 2009
Pollsters are hopeless
I followed the recent Qld state election with some interest. My main area of interest, for anyone who has ever aspired to meet me, was how could I win money on the bastard.
I started out a number of weeks ago, before the election was announced, by checking the prices for a LNP and ALP win. The odds were $3.20 to the LNP and $1.33 for the ALP. Not to shabby in a two horse race.
As the election was announced the prices stayed as they were. But as the news polls came out and seemed to indicate it was relatively even I was a little surprised to see the LNP did not drop in the betting significantly.
Even a week ago odds of $2.75 to the LNP and $1.48 for an ALP victory were available which seems pretty attractive given the continual seemingly evenness of all of the polls.
I even did my own polling! I rang certain government employed contacts of mine asking their feel for things around the traps. I must say some of them were quite concerned about their jobs and had even start preparing goodbye packages for friends and colleagues. Whilst I thought that that might be a bit premature it did lean me a certain way.
I was forced into the corner. The value price for the LNP combined with the apparent ‘flip of the coin’ type closeness in the election was enough and I made a decision to part with some hard earned on Lawrence & Co.
Dam the ALP and dam those pollsters! They couldn’t predict the depth at which my shoe will penetrate their fundamental orifices if I ever catch up with them!
