Mar 22 2009
Pollsters are hopeless
I followed the recent Qld state election with some interest. My main area of interest, for anyone who has ever aspired to meet me, was how could I win money on the bastard.
I started out a number of weeks ago, before the election was announced, by checking the prices for a LNP and ALP win. The odds were $3.20 to the LNP and $1.33 for the ALP. Not to shabby in a two horse race.
As the election was announced the prices stayed as they were. But as the news polls came out and seemed to indicate it was relatively even I was a little surprised to see the LNP did not drop in the betting significantly.
Even a week ago odds of $2.75 to the LNP and $1.48 for an ALP victory were available which seems pretty attractive given the continual seemingly evenness of all of the polls.
I even did my own polling! I rang certain government employed contacts of mine asking their feel for things around the traps. I must say some of them were quite concerned about their jobs and had even start preparing goodbye packages for friends and colleagues. Whilst I thought that that might be a bit premature it did lean me a certain way.
I was forced into the corner. The value price for the LNP combined with the apparent ‘flip of the coin’ type closeness in the election was enough and I made a decision to part with some hard earned on Lawrence & Co.
Dam the ALP and dam those pollsters! They couldn’t predict the depth at which my shoe will penetrate their fundamental orifices if I ever catch up with them!
You have put this very politely. I know you are a Labor lothing voter SJ. Just admit it!
I had no money on the election and I too am very upset with the lack of contest.
It’s going to be a long 3 years.
Don’t know the ins and outs of QLD politics but it seems to me the right people won the election. Jobs is key to keeping any economy going and labour looks to be the ones to do it.
Drive jobs by increasing red tape and burdens on business in favour for short term handouts and punishing anyone who has worked hard to generate a decent income for their family.
Sure Rob B the right people got in if you sit on your ass and complain that the world is against you.
The sort of red tape that would have stopped Pacific Brands sending thousands of jobs overseas? Yes lets all let that happen.
You clearly do not grasp basic economic fundamentals. Not attacking you, just suggesting you should rely on more than your highschool economics class before debating this with me.
I don’t think either side will make much diference in the grand sceme. The world econony is going to slow down it is going to affect all of us know mater who you voted for.
Here is a race you can bet on SJ. The race to see who SLAMS into rock bottom first, QLD or NSW. My money would be on QLD
I think it takes a lot to change your vote – many people support one of the parties regardless of their campaign, who is the leader and what they promise. They have just always been, and always will be a supporter of Labour/Liberal/Whatever.
So the people that sway from one side to the other, sitting on the fence, swapping their alegiance as each party announces a new road or more childcare than the previous person – these are often the people who decide the outcome. How can you predict that sort of behavious?
Since meeting IASM though, I now support Pauline Hanson – thanks IASM, you have shown me the way. Way to represent your ethnicity in a way that makes anyone else disrespect and dispise you. I dont want to send everyone from your country home, but YOU would be a good start. So lets get the ball rolling Bligh! (note: I know you live in Sydney somewhere, but Blighs influence is far reaching).
You blokes are hopeless up there. Why on earth you would ever let a woman run the show is beyond me (yeah I said it!).
It looks like Liberal got flogged from down here. You should have followed the odds over the polls everyone knows that. You have learnt your lesson no doubt
Pacific Brands sent those jobs oveseas for one simple reason Rob B – it was the only option that provided the short term profitability their shareholders demand.
Why do shareholders nowadays demand this? Because every man & his dog is reliant on his super fund to provide for retirement, so we all now have skin in the game.
Why is this? Because the federal government has decided to wipe their hands of the responsibility of supporting people once they retire.
The culprit? Paul “Fu&%!ng” Keating, another in the long line of Labor politicians to have had a crack at rooting this country. He introduced the compulsory 9% super contribution for companies & got the momentum really going.
Now a company like Pacific Brands can’t say to their shareholders that the next couple of years may be a little lean on dividends whilst we recession-proof the business & plan for the long term, because they will be out on their arse in 2 seconds flat. All the retirees are now relying on the cash to fund their next trip around Australia.
PS. People voted for Anna Bligh purely because they don’t like Springborg. Her career is a posterboard of failures & she will no doubt go down alongside her predecessor as having completely wasted a great chance to actually make a positive difference. Labor have ridden on the economic coat-tails of mining & tourism for a decade & their legacy will be shit schools, shit roads, & a shit health system. Well done guys!
Rob B….you been taking lessons from IASM???
‘the old don’t argue with me because I’m smarter than you’ line but with no actual fact or point to back you up…………
I’m more than willing to rely on my kindegarten economics when I battle with you……
A blog on Qld politics…..way to grab your share of the global traffic SJ!!! Fascinating!